South Africans should brace themselves for the worst year of load-shedding yet in 2021, with Stage 8 being a possibility before the end of winter.

This is the view of power and mining expert Ted Blom, who spoke to the Free Market Foundation’s Chris Hattingh during the latest episode of the Free Marketeers podcast.

Blom subsequently provided his analysis of the utility’s situation and a prognosis for load-shedding in the next year.

Blom claimed that Eskom was understating the amount of power it was actually shedding from the national grid.

This, he said, is because Eskom already interrupts 2,000MW of supply to its big customers when it announces load-shedding for the general public early in January 2021.

“When Eskom says we are having Stage 1 load-shedding or shedding 1,000MW, to the economy it is in fact a 3,000MW shortage,” Blom said.

He stated that by Eskom’s rules of engagement, Stage 1 would be implemented when up to 1,000MW would need to be shed, Stage 2 when up to 2,000MW needed to be shed, and so on.

While Eskom has over the past week said it is shedding at Stage 2, Blom said it has consistently been over 2,000MW short, which technically means Stage 3 is in effect.

“So in actual fact, if you add the numbers together, it’s the 2,000MW from the interruptible chaps, plus 2,000MW from the public, plus the residual for which they are over 2,000MW,” Blom stated.

“That in fact makes it about Stage 5 load-shedding if Eskom was more transparent and honest in its dealings with the public,” he said.

Worst year of load-shedding to be expected in 2021

Blom said that Eskom is capable of handling about 11,000MW of shortages before having to implement load-shedding.

However, the utility’s outlook for the next three months in its latest system status report showed near-consistent unavailability of 20,000MW or more when taking both planned maintenance work and unplanned outages into account.

This would mean that the deficit over the next three months would hover around 9,000MW.

“Therefore I feel quite comfortable saying that I will not be surprised that between now and the end of winter we will experience Stage 6 load-shedding, pretty much for certain, and even Stage 8 or above is a possibility.”

Based on Eskom’s own forecasts, 2021 is going to be the worst year of load-shedding on record, Blom stated.

“The outlook on Eskom’s own data is worse than last year. If it materialises it will be the worst in the history of Eskom,” Blom said.

This would follow load-shedding increasing both in terms of the number of days and MWh shed over the last few years – reaching 52 days and over 1,260,000MWh in 2020.

What happens at Stage 8

Stage 8 load-shedding is implemented when 8,000MW needs to be shed from the national grid in order to prevent a total collapse of the system.

During stage 8, consumers can expect much more frequent power cuts, to be without electricity for 48 hours over four days, or 50% of the time.

The worst level of load-shedding previously experienced in South Africa was Stage 6, which was implemented in December 2019 after a technical problem at Medupi Power Station.

At the time, Eskom needed to shed 6,000MW, which meant that around 40% of its capacity had been unavailable.

The infographic below provides more details regarding Eskom’s load-shedding stages.

Update – Eskom response

Eskom has told MyBroadband that while it endeavours to only load shed at Stage 4 or below and only when truly necessary, higher stages of load shedding could be required.

This would be the case if there are numerous, simultaneous breakdowns of generating units and depleted fuel levels at the OCGT (open cycle gas turbines) and pumped storage power stations.

“In the planning scenarios considered, at an unplanned unavailability of up to 14,000 MW of capacity, up to Stage 3 load-shedding is possible,” Eskom said.

“However, if this coincides with depleted fuel at pumped storage and OCGT power stations, higher stages of load-shedding are possible,” it added.

Pricing On Cloud Readings
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PRICING

Utility Management

Always know what you’ll pay for accurate water meter readings

12 Months

R1100

PER METERING UNIT

Annual Meter Management

Unit Price

R900

What Is Included

1x Utility Metering Device
Daily Meter Readings
Live Access to property data
Integrated With all Councils
24h Utility support

Monthly

R100

PER METERING UNIT

Monthly Meter Management

Unit Price

R900

What Is Included

1x Utility Metering Device
Daily Meter Readings
Live Access to property data
Integrated With all Councils
24h Utility support

24 Months

R2100

PER METERING UNIT

Bi-annual Meter Management

Unit Price

R900

What Is Included

1x Utility Metering Device
Daily Meter Readings
Live Access to property data
Integrated With all Councils
24h Utility support

Learn more about our Cloud Metering

FAQs

Frequently asked questions

HOW CAN I JOIN URBAN UTILITIES?

You can join Urban Utilites and have your property utilities account managed by simply clicking on the Join Now button, by sellecting your option best suited.

WHAT COST ARE INVOLVED IN JOINING?

The cost structure are divided into 2 main sections:

Monthly Management Fees:
– Monthly fee per meter installed @ R100 p/m

 

Equipment Fees: (once off)
– Water Management Device @ R865 incl
– Electrical Management Device + electrical Kw/h meter @ R2315 incl

The above fees exclude installation fees

HOW WOULD MY METER READINGS BE TAKEN?

Urban Utilities would install a small device on either the (Water or Electrical) infrastructure that would allow us to capture all consumptions through our integrated cloud based network.

HOW DOES IT INTEGRATE WITH MY COUNCIL?

Urban Utilities developed a stable integrated process that integrates with each council, this allows for all the data as collected from the property on either (Water or Electricity) to be provided to the specific council. This all happens on a monthly basis and gets processed directly from the main Urban platform via a automated process.

WHAT NEEDS TO BE INSTALLED TO ALLOW FOR THE AUTOMATED READINGS?
To capture the actual consumption readings live from your property Urban Utilities would need to install a small device on either the (Water or Electrical) architecture that would allow for the actual meter data to be processed into the Urban network infrastructure.

The Urban IoT network is cloud based thus allowing for the installations to be done seamlessly and without any major changes on the property.
90% of the installation is a plug & Play and can be done by any property owner. The other 10% only comes into effect if changes on the property architecture is needed and this would need to be done by either a qualified “electrician or plumber”.

WHERE WOULD I BE ABLE TO VIEW MY PROPERTIES UTILITIES DATA?

Urban Utilities designed a state of the art “National Utilities Portal” that allows for direct interaction between the actual property data, the property owner and the the utilities provider.
This process allows for direct interaction between all parties, thus allow the flow of true and accurate information and utilities data to be processed 24/7 365 days of the year directly from the utilities portal.

Access to the “National Utilities Portal” can be obtained by registering on the national platform
Click here to register and Join Urban Utilities

Storage Tank Management

Storage tank level indication at your finger tips

12 Months

R1200

PER STORAGE TANK / ANNUALLY

Annual Storage Tank Management

Unit Price

R2 265.50 

What Is Included

1x Storage Tank Device
Real Time Storage Tank Levels
Live Access To Storage Tank Data
Integrated Stock Control Process
Full Reporting Platform
Real Time Level Wornings
24h support

Monthly

R100

PER STORAGE TANK / MONTHLY

Monthly Storage Tank Management

Unit Price

R2 265.50 

What Is Included

1x Storage Tank Device
Real Time Storage Tank Levels
Live Access To Storage Tank Data
Integrated Stock Control Process
Full Reporting Platform
Real Time Level Wornings
24h support

24 Months

R2400

PER STORAGE TANK / BI-ANNUALLY

Bi-annual Storage Tank Management

Unit Price

R2 265.50 

What Is Included

1x Storage Tank Device
Real Time Storage Tank Levels
Live Access To Storage Tank Data
Integrated Stock Control Process
Full Reporting Platform
Real Time Level Wornings
24h support

Learn more about our Storage Tank Management

FAQs

Frequently asked questions

HOW CAN I JOIN URBAN UTILITIES?

You can join Urban Utilites and have your tank level account managed by simply clicking on the Join Now button, by sellecting your option best suited.

WHAT COST ARE INVOLVED IN JOINING?

The cost structure are divided into 2 main sections:

Monthly Management Fees:
– Monthly fee per meter installed @ R100 p/m

 

Equipment Fees: (once off)
– Tank Level Management Device
@ R2265.50 incl

 

The above fees exclude installation fees

HOW WOULD MY TANK LEVELS BE MANAGED?

All tank levels are managed through our state of the art IoT “LSM” unit. The unit forms part of the smart level sensing network that transmit all the relevant data into the cloud in realtime, this allows for valuable insight into the current tank status with loads of extra functionalities available to the user.

Read more about this on our product page by clicking here

HOW DOES IT INTEGRATE ON THE NETWORK?

The “LSM” units communicate onto our secure Urban IoT network, this process takes place in realtime to provide accurate and realtime information to the client.

All “LSM” units are free of any wiring and do not need to have electricity to operate, thus they can be implemented completely independently, where ever you need them the most even if its in rural areas.

WHAT NEEDS TO BE INSTALLED TO ALLOW FOR THE AUTOMATED TANK LEVEL MANAGEMENT?

To capture the actual tank level information live from your storage tanks, Urban Utilities would need to install a small device on storage tanks that would allow for the actual data to be processed into the Urban network infrastructure.

The Urban IoT network is cloud based thus allowing for the installations to be done seamlessly and without any major changes in the infrastructure.

90% of the installation is a plug & Play and can be done by any property owner. The other 10% only comes into effect if changes on the architecture are needed and this would need to be done by either a qualified “installer”.

 

Read more about this on our product page by clicking here

WHERE WOULD I BE ABLE TO VIEW MY TANK LEVEL DATA?

Urban Utilities designed a state of the art “Tank Level Management System” that allows for direct interaction between the actual tank level data and the client, this all takes place through our Urban Tank Portal

This process allows for direct interaction between all parties, thus allowing the flow of true and accurate information and tank level data to be processed 24/7 365 days of the year directly from the interactive tank level portal

Access to the “NTank Level Portal” can be obtained by registering on the national platform
Click here to register and Join Urban Utilities

Geyser Burst Management

Detect geyser burst and prevent water damage

12 Months

R1200

PER GEYSER / ANNUALLY

Annual Geyser Management

Unit Price

R2 288.50

What Is Included

1x Geyser Device
Real Time Geyser Valve Control
Real Time Burst Wornings
(SMS, Email & Push Notifications)
Real Time Leak Detection
Full Reporting Platform
24h support

Monthly

R100

PER GEYSER / MONTHLY

Monthly Geyser Management

Unit Price

R2 288.50

What Is Included

1x Geyser Device
Real Time Geyser Valve Control
Real Time Burst Wornings
(SMS, Email & Push Notifications)
Real Time Leak Detection
Full Reporting Platform
24h support

24 Months

R2400

PER GEYSER / BI-ANNUALLY

Bi-annual Geyser Management

Unit Price

R2 288.50

What Is Included

1x Geyser Device
Real Time Geyser Valve Control
Real Time Burst Wornings
(SMS, Email & Push Notifications)
Real Time Leak Detection
Full Reporting Platform
24h support

Learn more about our Geyser Management

FAQs

Frequently asked questions

HOW CAN I JOIN URBAN UTILITIES?

You can join Urban Utilites and have your property geyser managed by simply clicking on the Join Now button, by sellecting your option best suited.

WHAT COST ARE INVOLVED IN JOINING?

The cost structure are divided into 2 main sections:

Monthly Management Fees:
– Monthly fee per meter installed @ R100 p/m

 

Equipment Fees: (once off)
– Geyser Management Device @ R2288.50 incl

The above fees exclude installation fees

HOW WOULD MY GEYSER BE MAMANGED?

The geyser management units are designed for control over the water management process that takes place on the geyser itself.

In the case of a geyser burst or leak the number one issue that comes into play would be the possibility of water damage caused by the leak or a burst geyser. The geyser units act as a water detection device that shuts off the water in the event that a burst or leak in the geyser is detected.

The Urban management system then controls that actions around the possible geyser burst and leak by processing early warning messages to the property owner of the event via (sms, email and push notifications) through the urban portal.

The Geyser unit also allows for integration to your insurance provider by allowing the data to be processed to them in the event of a geyser burst or leak that will assist with immediate repairs and claims in the process.

HOW DOES IT INTEGRATE WITH MY INSURANCE PROVIDER?

We have an integration process that takes place with the insurance providers in South Africa that allow for each geyser management device installed to be processed and linked on the policy of each client in accordance with the policy process in place.

This will allow for the data process to take place between the geyser management device and the insurance provider.

WHAT NEEDS TO BE INSTALLED TO ALLOW FOR MY GEYSER TO BE MANAGED?

To manage a geyser live from your property Urban Utilities would need to install a small device on the geyser architecture that would allow for the actual geyser to be managed and the data to be processed into the Urban network infrastructure.

The Urban IoT network is cloud based thus allowing for the installations to be done seamlessly and without any major changes in the properties geyser architecture.

90% of the installation is a plug & Play and can be done by any property owner. The other 10% only comes into effect if changes on the property architecture are needed and this would need to be done by a qualified plumber.

WHERE WOULD I BE ABLE TO VIEW MY PROPERTIES GEYSER DATA?

Urban Utilities designed a state of the art “National Utilities Portal” that allows for direct interaction between the actual property data that includes the geyser infrastructure, the property owner and the insurance providers.
This process allow the flow of true and accurate information and utilities / geayser data to be processed 24/7 365 days of the year directly from the Urban utilities portal.

Access to the “National Utilities Portal” can be obtained by registering on the national platform
Click here to register and Join Urban Utilities

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